Tuesday, July 8, 2014

World Cup 2014: The Semi-Finals

In a rocky Round of 16, my rule to pick teams according to how much a country has done for my career scored just 4 wins and 4 losses. But the rule swept through the Quarter Finals with 4 wins and 0 losses. Not surprisingly, then, all four remaining countries have contributed in major ways to my career. (Face it, France, you're never going to win another World Cup without putting in a bit more effort.) So let's see how the remaining four teams stack up. Below, I present the critical features of each team: (1) Number of co-authors, (2) Number of publications with co-authors, (3) Total citations to those publications, and (4) Sponsored days visiting universities of the country.

    • Co-authors: 0
    • Co-authored publications: 0
    • Citations to co-authored publications: 0
    • Sponsored days visiting: 60
    • Assessment: I greatly appreciate the conferences, presentations, and teaching I've done in Argentina, but the country is just not going to measure up to the other contenders.

    • Co-authors: 1
    • Co-authored publications: 3
    • Citations to co-authored publications: 458
    • Sponsored days visiting: 5
    • Assessment: Thanks to my co-author Jan-Egbert Sturm, Netherlands has been a heavy favorite from the beginning of the tournament. One of our publications even won an award. And I had the chance to visit the country thanks to De Nederlandsche Bank, which sponsored my attendance at a conference (after which I visited the lovely town of Vreeland).

Bottom line: Netherlands > Argentina

    • Co-authors: 1
    • Co-authored publications: 3
    • Citations to co-authored publications: 607
    • Sponsored days visiting: 30
    • Assessment: Thanks to Zé Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, Brazil has a real shot. Limongi sponsored my visit to USP, and Cheibub has co-authored with me. We may not have many publications (yet), but we've got a lot of citations. Brazil is going to be tough to beat.

Bottom line: Brazil has a very slight edge in citations, but Germany dominates in all other categories. I'll have to side with Germany.

    Remaining games:
    • Prediction for third place: Brazil over Argentina
    • Prediction for first place: Germany over Netherlands