Wednesday, June 10, 2015

June 11 edition: FIFA Women's World Cup Canada 2015

Continuing to pick World Cup matches according to what the countries have done for my career as a scholar. The approach does ok because of a spurious correlation: populous & rich countries are likely to have both (1) good performances in international sports and (2) strong universities.

How has my ridiculous approach to picking teams performed? There have been 12 matches so far. For one of them, I couldn't make a prediction (neither Cameroon nor Ecuador has done much of anything for my career...yet!). Three of them ended in a tie (purists will say that I should be able to predict ties... but, com'on, I'm already stretching with this silly approach to predict winners). How about the remaining 8 matches where my decision-rule and the outcome were decisive? I've got 6 wins and 2 losses. Not bad.

Let's see how things go with the remaining 24 matches of the group stage... Here are the predictions for the upcoming June 11 matches:

Germany v. Norway -- I'm with my co-authors, Dreher, Gassebner, Lamla, and Klasen: Germany!

China v. Netherlands -- I have loved my teaching experiences with Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, but I've got to stick with my Dutch co-author Jan-Egbert Sturm: Netherlands!

Côte d’Ivoire v. Thailand -- I don't have close ties to either country, but my great student and friend, Nathaniel Cogley, is a Professor of Political Science at Ivory Coast's International University of Grand Bassam. Côte d’Ivoire!

Canada v. New Zealand -- I'm with my Canadian co-author, Eric Werker: O Canada!

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